August 2026

La crisis de las pensiones en Europa: modelos nacionales, reformas y perspectivas de consolidación

Por Dan Țop Los sistemas públicos de pensiones en Europa enfrentan una crisis estructural profunda, impulsada por tendencias demográficas de largo plazo como el aumento de la esperanza de vida, la disminución de la natalidad y el envejecimiento acelerado de la población activa. Estas dinámicas ejercen una presión creciente sobre los sistemas de reparto (pay-as-you-go), basados en la solidaridad intergeneracional. El presente estudio realiza un análisis comparativo de los principales modelos nacionales de pensiones en la Unión Europea, identificando diferencias...

Pensión de vejez en crisis por cambios demográficos y culturales, el ahorro individual voluntario una solución ajustada a largo plazo

Por Laura Morales Gómez, Laura Morales Gómez & Luz Eliana Gallego Henao El Sistema General de Pensiones permite a las personas que cumplen los requisitos establecidos en la ley, acceder a cierta cantidad de dinero para sufragar sus gastos en el último periodo de vida, donde la actividad productiva y capacidad laboral se reducen. No obstante, se identifica que cada reforma legal extiende los tiempos de edad para acceder a la misma, o aumenta el número de semanas como requisito...

Vejez y pobreza en México: ¿Quiénes son más propensos a ser pobres?

Por Sagrario Garay Villegas & Miguel Calderón Chelius Las condiciones económicas de la población adulta mayor en México han mostrado que la mayoría no cuentan con ingresos derivados de una pensión contributiva, lo cual implica que muchas personas mayores se encuentren en condiciones de pobreza. Esto último puede ser diferencial de acuerdo con ciertas características sociodemográficas y de su contexto, en este artículo se tiene como objetivo analizar las condiciones socioeconómicas en las que se encuentra la población adulta mayor...

España. Pensiones y mercados: una alianza necesaria

Por Juan Flames Una enseñanza constante de la historia es que anticiparse permite evitar que las crisis escalen. El azar es inevitable, pero existe una diferencia fundamental entre la mala suerte y las consecuencias de la inacción. El pasado ofrece ejemplos en los que la demora o la falta de decisiones oportunas desencadenaron crisis cuyas dimensiones solo pudieron comprenderse cuando ya era demasiado tarde. Como afirma Morgan Housel, la mayoría de las grandes debacles no surgen de un único acontecimiento,...

Fewer babies, more retirees: How Europe’s demographic math is changing

Europe is confronting a demographic problem that is becoming increasingly difficult for governments to ignore: fewer children are being born while the number of older people continues to rise. The trend is already visible in shrinking schools, ageing communities and growing pressure on pension and healthcare systems. In the Spanish village of Vilardevos, the change is particularly stark. A primary school originally built for around 700 children now has only 31 pupils. Classes have to be combined because there are not...

State of Pensions 2026: 7th Annual Edition

By Equable Institute State of Pensions is Equable Institute’s annual report on the status of statewide public pension systems, put into a historic context. Governments face a wide range of challenges in general – and some of the largest are growing, and often unpredictable, pension costs. State of Pensions analyzes trends in public pension funding, investments, contributions, cash flows, and benefits for 253 of the largest statewide and municipal retirement systems in all 50 states to illuminate the scale and...

The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing

By Katalin Bodnár & Carolin Nerlich The euro area, like many other advanced economies, has entered an era of drastic demographic change. Without appropriate policy responses, population ageing in the euro area is posing formidable challenges for potential growth, monetary policy and public finances. This paper examines – from a central bank’s perspective – the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of population ageing in the euro area and looks at the main challenges ahead in the next decades. Total population in the...

Bequest-Motivated Decumulation of UK Pensions for Non-Domiciled Individuals: A Monte-Carlo and HJB Approach

By Sebastien Hitier We study the optimal decumulation of a UK pension pot for an expatriate holder who is tax-resident in a jurisdiction that does not tax investment income or gifts. Because the pension wrapper offers no ongoing tax shelter to heirs, the holder's sole objective is to minimise the expected present value of lifetime taxes-personal income tax on drawdowns plus inheritance tax at death. We formulate the problem as a stochastic optimal control with Gompertz-Makeham mortality, progressive UK taxation,...

Deaccumulation in India: The Role of Equity, Debt and Annuities in Retirement Income

By Ravi Saraogi & Pushpinder Singh Framework: We adopt a partial annuitisation framework in which a fraction of the retirement corpus is used to purchase an immediate life annuity, while the remainder is retained in a self-managed portfolio. Using a bootstrap Monte Carlo approach with Indian equity, debt and inflation data, we simulate retirement paths across four portfolio allocations, three annuitisation levels (0, 20 and 40 per cent) and four annuity payout rates (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent)....

AI, Fiscal Space, and Social Protection in Four Latin American Economies: ;A Scenario-based Threshold Framework

By Vicenzo Scavino Can fiscal space from artificial intelligence finance recurrent social protection in Latin America? This paper develops a prespecified, scenario-based feasibility test that translates an AI dividend into income and fiscal capture, compares it with policy costs, and applies debt-consistency and persistence screens. For Peru, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, no deterministic crossing occurs under non-stress scenarios because translation and capture jointly fall short. Crossings arise only under diagnostic disruption: Chilean guaranteed minimum income is conditionally feasible and debt-consistent;...