February 2025
14Feb

Place-Based Policies of the European Union: Contrasts and Similarities to the US Experience

By Peter R. Berkowitz, Michael Storper & Max Herbertson The European place-based policy framework was established in the European Treaties and has a current budget of $60-70 billion per year. This paper identifies key features and directions for its future development with respect to three place-based problems: traditionally lagging regions; contemporary distressed (or left-behind regions), including those facing the structural challenges of the energy transition; the challenge of spreading prosperity faced with the uneven geography of technological clusters and routine technology-based manufacturing. We...

February 14, 2025
Articles, Regulation, , ,
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14Feb

The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile

By Carlos Madeira Chile implemented large pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic. Afterwards, Chile increased non contributory beneÖts in a quasi-universal scheme. Simulating future pensions, I show that the average loss in contributory pension income is 27.9%, with losses of 23.9% and 31.4% for men and women, respectively. After accounting for public transfers, the average loss in total pension income is just 6.2%, with losses of 7.5% and 5.2% for men and women, respectively. Current retirees lost just 1.1% of...

February 14, 2025
Articles, Savings, , , ,
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07Feb

Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization

By David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to...

February 7, 2025
Articles, Labor Market, , , ,
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07Feb

Challenges and concerns surrounding China’s retirement age reform

By China Labour Bulletin China is currently grappling with a pressing demographic challenge, marked by record-low birth rates and low retirement ages, leading to a continuous decline in the working-age population. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the working-age population dropped to 61.3% in 2023, down from 62% the previous year. The shrinking workforce and ageing population are increasingly straining China’s pension system. Current projections indicate that, without intervention, the social security system’s resources will be depleted by 2035. In response to...

February 7, 2025
Articles, System Sustainability, , , ,
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07Feb

Smaller than We Thought? The Effect of Automatic Savings Policies

By James J. Choi, David Laibson, Jordan Cammarota, Richard Lombardo & John Beshears Medium- and long-run dynamics undermine the effect of automatic enrollment and default savings-rate auto-escalation on retirement savings. Our analysis of nine 401(k) plans incorporates the facts that employees frequently leave firms (often before matching contributions from their employer have fully vested), a large percentage of 401(k) balances are withdrawn upon employment separation, and many employees opt out of auto-escalation. Steady-state saving rates increase by 0.6% of income due to automatic enrollment and...

February 7, 2025
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January 2025
31Jan

Pensions investment outlook 2025: U.S. policy uncertainty clouds road ahead

By Investment Managers The coming year will likely be characterized by three main drivers: the U.S.’s politically driven polices, structural economic 1 The implicit yield curve based on the floating rates associated with an interest rate swap. weaknesses and political uncertainty in Europe, and China’s restructuring of its troubled property market. Overall, our forecasts suggest global growth looks set to continue its 2024 pace of 3.2% in 2025, before easing in 2026 to 2.9%. This outlook could be compounded by the implementation...

January 31, 2025
Articles, Investment, , ,
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31Jan

Household Saving in Japan: The Past, Present, and Future

By Charles Yuji Horioka This paper explores the determinants of the level of, and trends over time in, Japan’s household saving rate, with emphasis on the impact of the age structure of the population, and makes projections about future trends therein. The paper finds that Japan’s household saving rate has not always been high either absolutely or relative to other countries and that it was only during the 1961-86 period that it exceeded 15%. Past and future trends in Japan’s...

January 31, 2025
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31Jan

Financial Inclusion Across the United States

By Motohiro Yogo, Andrew Whitten & Natalie Cox We study retirement and bank account participation for the universe of U.S. households with a member aged 50 to 59 in the administrative tax data. ZCTA-level average income, income inequality, and racial composition predict retirement account participation for low-income households, conditional on household income and regional price parities. Income inequality also predicts bank account participation for low-income households. We estimate the causal effect of access to an employer retirement plan on participation. Recent policy proposals...

January 31, 2025
Articles, System Characterization, , ,
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31Jan

The Looming Crisis: China’s Pension System Faces a Generational Challenge

By Jessica Huang China, a nation of immense scale and ambition, is in the grip of an urgent demographic crisis. Declining birth rates and rising life expectancy are rapidly aging the population. Within the next two decades, the number of retirement-age individuals is expected to surpass the entire population of the United States, with an estimated 402 million people over 60 by 2040—28% of China’s total population. This demographic shift is straining the workforce, social services, healthcare infrastructure, and economic productivity, marking...

January 31, 2025
Aging, Articles, , , ,
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24Jan

Influencing Retirement Savings Decisions with Automatic Enrollment and Related Tools

By John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian Historically, retirees in the US relied on the “three-legged stool” of Social Security, defined benefit (DB) pension plans, and personal savings to provide retirement income.1 Beginning in the late 1970s, however, access to DB plans began to fall while access to defined contribution (DC) plans, which require individuals to make their own savings plan contributions and investment decisions during their working years, rose.2 As of December 2023, retirement assets in...

January 24, 2025
Articles, Savings, , ,
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