February 2026

Liability-Driven Portfolio Choice for Pension Funds under Regime-Switching Inflation

By Myung Jun Kim, Hyeontae Jo & Bong-Gyu Jang This paper studies optimal portfolio choice for a pension fund with inflation-linked liabilities under regime-switching market dynamics. We consider a fund manager who invests in stocks, inflation-indexed bonds (IIBs), and a risk-free asset to maximize expected utility of the terminal funding ratio, subject to a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint. Asset returns and inflation expectations follow a two-state Markov chain representing high and low inflation regimes. The main methodological challenge is solving the...

Multidisciplinary Pathways to Retirement Financial Literacy: An Experimental Comparison of Gamified and Infographic Interventions

By Chrizaan Grobbelaar & Liezel Alsemgeest Due to population ageing and a decline in the working-age population, retirees can no longer rely on government support in retirement, making financial literacy even more important for society to plan for retirement. The current low financial literacy levels globally are evident in the vast number of retirees retiring unprepared. Educating a society on the basics of financial literacy is not enough for them to make sense of pension rules, tax implications, or make...

January 2026

The Bulgarian Pension System: Caught Between Adequacy And Sustainability

By Jean-Jacques Hallaert During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks. Source SSRN

Scaling Sustainable Investing in Emerging and Developing Economies: Frictions and Opportunities

By Caroline Flammer, Thomas Giroux & Geoffrey M. Heal Mobilizing private capital at scale is critical for financing sustainable development, particularly in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), where capital is most needed. We conduct a global survey of senior investment decision-makers across a broad spectrum of capital providers, including asset managers, pension and sovereign wealth funds, development finance institutions, philanthropic investors, and others. The survey provides novel evidence on investors’ risk-return expectations, risk perceptions, and investment practices in EMDEs and...

Pension Schemes, Healthcare Use, and Health: Evidence from China

By Zeen He Using a non-parametric fuzzy regression discontinuity design and leveraging data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this paper explores the impact of public and private pension schemes on health service utilization and health outcomes among urban and rural individuals in China. Our estimates show that receipt of public pensions, particularly the Urban Employee Pension Scheme (UEPS) and Public Employee Pension Scheme (PEPS), significantly improves selfreported health, mental health (CES-D scores), and physical health (ADL...

Population Aging and Corporate Leverage

By Xingshen Li, Kexin Jiang, Wei Li & Xiaofen Tan This study examines the relationship between corporate leverage and population aging. Based on a panel dataset of global listed firms from 2000 to 2021, we find that population aging at the country level reduces a firm’s leverage. This effect is mediated through mechanisms that influence operational pressures and asset prices. Further analysis reveals that the adverse impact of population aging on corporate leverage is more pronounced among firms with higher financial...

Social Protection for Informal Workers

By Abhijeet U Pai The modern working relationships require the law to recognise non-standard forms of employment and address the lack of traditional employment benefits like social protection for them. Informal employment is seen as a job-based (based on nature of job rather than status of the enterprise) concept that cuts across different sectors of economic activity and thus is defined as ‘informal economy’ rather than ‘informal sector’, in terms of employment relationship and protections associated with the job of the...

Artificial Intelligence and Retirement Planning

By John Cutler, J.D Any views and ideas expressed in the essay are the author’s alone and may not reflect the views and ideas of the Society of Actuaries, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, Society of Actuaries members, nor the author’s employer. The premise for this essay is that retirees (and pre-retirees) are unlikely to have had experience with artificial intelligence (AI) to any great degree. If you think about most advanced technologies, individuals learn about them in the workplace...

Pension Wealth and the Timing of Retirement

By Jonas Maibom, Torben M. Andersen & Anne Katrine Borgbjerg We analyze how pension wealth influences retirement timing using 25 years of Danish administrative panel data on wealth and labor market status. Exploiting early-career variation in firm-specific mandatory pension contribution rates, we study labor supply decisions from age 55 onward. Greater pension wealth accelerates labor market exit: at age 63, the elasticity is about 0.3 — an additional 100,000 DKK (15,000 USD) at age 55 reduces earnings by 1% at...

Explaining Digital Payments Adoption with Econometrics and Explainable Machine Learning: Cross-Country Evidence from a Global Household Survey

By Saida Hajjaji This paper studies the determinants of individual adoption of digital payments using the Global Findex Database 2025, released by the World Bank and based on nationally representative household surveys conducted in 2024 across 141 economies. We combine a standard econometric approach with explainable machine learning (ML) methods in order to provide both transparent global benchmarks and granular, policy-relevant insights into digital payment behaviours. We first estimate a parsimonious logistic regression model on a broad multi-country sample of 5,189...