By Josh Bivens It is often underrecognized how much population aging is currently reducing the growth rate of the U.S. labor force and will continue to pull it down in coming decades. The share of the population that is over the age of 65 (when labor force participation tends to take a steep fall on average) is rising rapidly. This share was 12.4% in 2007, 17.9% in 2024, and will hit 21.2% by 2035 (CBO 2025b). A recent EPI report...
By Kanta Ogawa Older male workers exhibit diverse retirement behaviors across occupations and respond differently to policy changes, influenced significantly by the part-time penalty—wage reduction faced by part-time workers compared to their full-time counterparts. Many older individuals reduce their working hours, and in occupations with high part-time penalties, they tend to retire earlier, as observed in data from Japan and the United States. This study develops a general equilibrium model that incorporates occupational choices, endogenous labor supply, highlighting that the...
By Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Over the past two decades, population ageing, increasing statutory retirement ages and rising education levels have led to higher employment rates among workers aged 55 and above in OECD countries. However, progress across countries remain uneven, and employment rates decline rapidly from age 60, such that many workers are leaving employment well before reaching the eligibility age for a pension. To sustain living standards and address structural labour shortages, many countries will need...
By Yeseul Lee & Hyeonjun Hwang This study examines the impact of artificial intelligence exposure on wage and employment outcomes in the Korean labor market in 2020. We propose the Artificial Intelligence Exposure Score (AIES) by integrating 27,921 Korean AI patents from 2011 and 2020 with O*NET task descriptions through Sentence-BERT natural language processing techniques. This approach creates occupation-level exposure measures that reflect Korea-specific innovation patterns. Using data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS), we estimate log-linear...
By Bert van Landeghem, Thomas Dohmen & Arne Risa Hole We analyse workers’ preferences for wages, commute time, working-from-home, flexibility, job security, and social impact using discrete choice experiments from 2022 and 2025 with about 4,000 Flemish employees. Preferences for shorter commutes and flexible schedules remain stable post-pandemic, with substantial willingness-to-pay (WTP) for these attributes. However, WTP for job security declined and the value of socially impactful jobs disappeared by 2025. Latent class analysis identifies distinct groups differing in their...
By Ewan McGaughey What should be the goals of social infrastructure, and the best means to achieve them? Social infrastructure is a new term to describe the welfare state, whose conceptual foundations were laid in Lord Beveridge’s Report, Social Insurance and Allied Services (1942). A good government, said Beveridge, should tackle five evil ‘giants’, namely disease, ignorance, squalor, idleness, and want. These could be overcome with a universal free health service, public education, public housing, full employment, and income insurance...
By Anthony Larsson & Andreas Hatzigeorgiou The Future of Labour: How AI, Technological Disruption and Practice Will Change the Way We Work is an anthology that offers a forward-looking exploration of how artificial intelligence (AI), digitalisation and technological transformation are reshaping the future of work. Through a series of studies conducted by scientists and industry professionals, this volume takes a deep dive into many of the issues related to new policies, AI and the digital transformation’s anticipated impact on the labour market....
By European Union In Q1 2025, 197.9 million persons in the EU were employed. The EU seasonally adjusted employment rate for people aged 20-64 years stood at 76.1%, up from 76.0% in Q4 2024 as shown in Figure 1. For the same period, the seasonally adjusted total labour market slack in the EU, which is the unmet need for work, amounted to 23.6 million persons, which represented 10.9% of the extended labour force in Q1 2025, up from 10.8% in Q4 2024. Regarding its main component,...
By George Domfe, Kwadwo Opoku & Antoinette Tsiboe-Darko Population ageing has stirred up policy discourse on pension coverage in developing economies. While in most of these countries, a smaller proportion of older persons receive pensions in the form of regular payments from the state, a considerable proportion of them engage in active work to maintain their livelihood. These descriptions are typically true of Ghana. However, it remains unclear in the Ghanaian literature whether the absence of a pension is a...
By Raquel Justo, Adrian Merida & Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis Understanding the drivers of early retirement is increasingly important in the context of aging populations and growing concerns over pension sustainability. While extensive research has examined the retirement behavior of paid employees, the self-employed, who operate under distinct work arrangements and institutional contexts, remain comparatively understudied. This work examines whether job satisfaction influences actual retirement behavior differently for self-employed individuals and paid employees. Leveraging longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Ageing...
